Merck started this deal at $61 a share. It ended at $53. The gap tells you everything about what the CARDINAL data looked like.
The biotech disclosed Tuesday in an SEC filing that Merck’s initial February offer valued Terns Pharmaceuticals at roughly $7.7 billion. Days later, updated Phase 1 data from TERN-701, an oral TKI for chronic myeloid leukemia, landed on both suitors’ desks. The major molecular response rate came in below the 64% benchmark disclosed in December 2025. Merck dropped its bid to $50 per share. The unnamed second bidder walked entirely, citing insufficient differentiation.
Terns negotiated Merck back up to $53, locking in the $6.7 billion deal announced last month. William Blair, which had called the original price a bargain and flagged a potential competing offer, reversed course Tuesday: “The emergence of a higher bidder is unlikely.”
What Merck actually bought: a potential challenger to Novartis’ Scemblix, which pulled $1.28 billion last year in the approved CML indication. Leerink projects TERN-701 could hit $6.2 billion in peak revenues by 2040 — if the Phase 1 data holds up. Phase 1 is all the data Merck has seen.
The deal fits Merck’s pattern. Since mid-2025, it’s deployed nearly $26 billion across three acquisitions to shore up the pipeline before Keytruda loses exclusivity in 2028.
Deal expected to close early May.
Diana Kowalski