North Carolina just wrote federal preemption into its own statute book. Buried in Senate Bill 257, the budget Gov. Josh Stein signed July 7 as Session Law 2026-41, is language declaring that any prediction market platform registered with the CFTC can operate lawfully in the state, full stop, because the Commodity Exchange Act gives the agency “exclusive federal regulatory authority” over event contracts.
The tax tells you where the state actually stands. Kalshi and Polymarket get hit with a 6% levy on net trading fees from North Carolina residents, no licensing or registration attached. Sportsbooks just got their tax raised from 18% to 23% in the same bill. That’s not a rounding error, it’s a legal position: prediction markets aren’t gambling, sportsbooks are.
I’ve read enough state gaming statutes to know when one is drawing a line on purpose. North Carolina is betting the CEA’s derivatives framework survives contact with the Supreme Court, and structuring its tax code now so it doesn’t have to unwind a licensing regime later.
That bet looks shakier by the week. The same day Stein signed, Judge Analisa Torres denied Kalshi’s injunction bid against New York, ruling the CEA doesn’t preempt state gambling law. Kentucky’s 14.5% transaction tax drew a CFTC lawsuit. Courts have split across New Jersey, Tennessee, Maryland, Nevada and Arizona. Meanwhile the CFTC’s own proposed rule on enumerated activities admits gaming-adjacent contracts need a public-interest test, with the comment window still open.
One state can’t settle a circuit split. But North Carolina just handed every other legislature a template for choosing sides before the Supreme Court forces the issue.
Rebecca Lauren