Lilly’s TRIUMPH-1 Phase 3 data dropped Saturday at the American Diabetes Association in New Orleans with one number: 30.3%. That’s average weight loss from retatrutide at 104 weeks, with roughly 45% of patients crossing a threshold historically linked to bariatric surgery.
Novo came back with breadth. In 40-plus abstracts at ADA, the company presented posthoc SELECT trial analyses showing semaglutide cut asthma-related adverse events from 46 to 27 in 1,190 patients with comorbid cardiovascular disease. Novo’s principal medical head Jason Brett cited over 49 million cumulative patient years with semaglutide across trials and real-world use.
The Wegovy pill is also pulling commercial weight. FDA approved oral semaglutide 25 mg in December 2025 as the first oral GLP-1 for weight management; prescriptions have crossed 3 million, roughly one every five seconds per Novo’s own figures. BMO Capital Markets called growth ahead of expectations after an analyst dinner with CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar and CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen.
CagriSema, a semaglutide-plus-cagrilintide combination, posted just over 14% weight reduction and reduced hemoglobin A1c in REIMAGINE 1-3. Novo filed the obesity NDA in December 2025 and expects an FDA decision by year-end. Ziltivekimab’s Phase 3 ZEUS readout in ASCVD plus chronic kidney disease follows in H2 2026.
Novo’s deeper problem: if retatrutide’s 30.3% results reshape what payers and FDA reviewers treat as the reference bar for obesity, pipeline breadth doesn’t automatically translate to formulary position. CagriSema’s H2 FDA decision will be the first real test.
— Rebecca Lauren