Neurocrine Biosciences is buying Soleno Therapeutics for $2.9 billion to get its hands on Vykat XR: the only approved therapy for insatiable hunger in Prader-Willi syndrome patients.
Against Vykat XR’s $190 million in 2025 revenue, Neurocrine is paying roughly 15x trailing sales for a drug less than a year post-launch. CEO Kyle Gano said Vykat XR showed “all the profile aspects of a potential blockbuster in the making” on Monday. Investors weren’t as sure — shares fell about 2%.
What Neurocrine is actually buying: exclusivity projected through the mid-2040s, and a competitive field that’s been thinning. Aardvark Therapeutics paused a phase 3 trial in Prader-Willi just weeks ago. Acadia killed its rival program after a phase 3 failure in September 2025. Aardvark’s pause and Acadia’s exit leave Vykat XR without a near-term rival.
The real risk is market penetration. Vykat XR’s $92 million Q4 implies an annualized run rate near $370 million before Neurocrine’s commercial infrastructure adds anything. Wells Fargo flagged that expanding from specialist centers into community practices won’t be easy, especially with edema warnings on the label requiring physician monitoring.
This is Neurocrine’s largest deal since its 1992 founding. International sales aren’t in the deal model yet. U.S. only.
The transaction closes pending standard regulatory review.
— Diana Kowalski